Colonel Abiy and the ‘Infected Wound’: Ethiopia’s Deepening Crisis

By David Yeh

The proverb that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently used in a Tigrinya interview “ቀንጠብጠብ ትብል ዳዋ ተምጾ ኣለዋ,” meaning “You keep saying ‘little by little,’ but the wound has already become infected quickly resonated across the Horn of Africa. Delivered in the language spoken widely in both northern Ethiopia and Eritrea, the phrase appeared to be a pointed message directed toward the Eritrean leadership. The metaphor implied that Eritrea had gradually allowed tensions to worsen until they had become dangerous. Yet beyond its immediate rhetorical impact, the proverb raises a deeper and more uncomfortable question about the political realities facing Ethiopia itself. In many ways, the image of an untreated wound growing worse over time reflects the trajectory of Ethiopia’s internal crises under Abiy’s leadership more than it does the actions of any external rival.

When Abiy Ahmed first rose to power in 2018, he was widely celebrated as a reformer who could guide Ethiopia into a new political era. The country had spent nearly three decades under the rule of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, a coalition that had dominated Ethiopian politics since the early 1990s. By the time Abiy became prime minister, mass protests and widespread public dissatisfaction had weakened the ruling establishment and created space for a new leader to emerge. Abiy’s early actions generated extraordinary optimism both within Ethiopia and internationally. He released political prisoners, welcomed exiled opposition groups back into the country, loosened restrictions on media and civil society, and promised a political transformation that would move Ethiopia toward greater openness and national reconciliation.

Perhaps the most dramatic moment of his early leadership came when he reached out to Eritrea to end the long standing hostility that had persisted since the devastating Eritrean – Ethiopian War. The peace agreement he signed with Isaias Afwerki ended nearly twenty years of frozen conflict between the two neighbors and reopened diplomatic relations that had been closed since the early 2000s. The agreement was hailed internationally as a breakthrough that could stabilize one of Africa’s most volatile regions. In recognition of this achievement, Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, a distinction that elevated him to global prominence and reinforced the perception that Ethiopia was entering a new period of political renewal.

Yet the optimism surrounding Abiy’s rise soon collided with the deeper structural tensions within Ethiopian politics. Ethiopia is composed of numerous ethnic groups, languages, and regional identities that are embedded within a federal political system. For decades, political stability had been maintained through a delicate balance among regional power centers. When Abiy dissolved the old ruling coalition and replaced it with the Prosperity Party, he sought to centralize authority and create a unified national political organization. While some viewed this move as a necessary step toward overcoming ethnic fragmentation, it weakened the delicate equilibrium that had allowed Ethiopia’s federal system to function.

These tensions escalated dramatically in 2020 when Ethiopia plunged into the brutal Tigray War. The conflict erupted after relations between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front deteriorated into open confrontation. What initially appeared to be a localized political dispute quickly expanded into a devastating war that drew in multiple armed actors, including forces from Eritrea after the TPLF launched long range missiles into Eritrea. Over the next two years, the conflict produced massive humanitarian suffering, widespread displacement, and severe damage to infrastructure across northern Ethiopia. International criticism intensified as reports of atrocities and humanitarian crises spread. Although the war formally ended with the Pretoria Agreement in 2022, the conflict fundamentally reshaped Ethiopia’s political landscape and left deep divisions that continue to affect the country today.

The end of the Tigray war did not bring the stability many had hoped for. Instead, Ethiopia soon faced new security crises in other regions. In the Amhara Region, tensions between federal forces and militia groups associated with the Fano movement escalated into violent confrontations. Supporters of these armed groups accused the central government of undermining regional autonomy and weakening local security structures. Meanwhile, in the Oromia Region, insurgent activity by the Oromo Liberation Army continued to challenge the authority of the federal government. These overlapping conflicts have created a situation in which Ethiopia’s security forces are simultaneously engaged in multiple internal crises, stretching resources and complicating efforts to restore national stability.

At the same time, Ethiopia’s economic situation has become increasingly strained. Years of conflict have imposed enormous costs on the national economy, leaving infrastructure damaged and public finances under pressure. Inflation has risen, the value of the Ethiopian Birr has faced persistent pressure, and reconstruction needs following the Tigray war remain immense. The government has been forced to negotiate debt restructuring with international lenders while attempting to maintain economic growth in a challenging global environment. For many ordinary Ethiopians, the economic hardships of recent years have dampened the optimism that initially greeted Abiy’s reforms.

Within this context, Abiy has increasingly emphasized the strategic importance of securing reliable access ownership to the Red Sea. Since Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia has lost forcefully acquired sea access. Abiy has argued that Ethiopia’s large population and economic ambitions require direct maritime access. This issue became particularly controversial after Ethiopia signed a port agreement with Somaliland in 2024, a move that angered the government of Somalia and raised fears of escalating regional tensions. For critics, the push for maritime access reflects an attempt to project geopolitical strength at a time when Ethiopia is grappling with serious internal challenges.

In this broader context, the proverb about the infected wound acquires a deeper layer of irony. The phrase warns about the dangers of ignoring small problems until they become severe. Yet many of the crises confronting Ethiopia today followed precisely this pattern. Political tensions that once seemed manageable gradually escalated into large scale conflicts. Regional grievances that were initially dismissed grew into armed confrontations. Economic pressures that began as temporary challenges have evolved into long term structural concerns. Each of these developments reflects the cumulative consequences of unresolved tensions within Ethiopia’s political system.

Power in international politics is not determined solely by population size or military capacity. Internal stability, economic resilience, and political cohesion are equally important components of national strength. For this reason, Abiy’s proverb may ultimately resonate less as a warning directed at Eritrea and more as an unintended reflection of Ethiopia’s own political journey over the past decade. The metaphor of an infected wound speaks to the consequences of unresolved problems and delayed solutions. In a country as complex as Ethiopia, where regional identities, political institutions, and economic pressures intersect in unpredictable ways, the cost of neglecting those problems can be extraordinarily high.

The future of Ethiopia will depend on whether its leadership can address these underlying challenges before they deepen further. The Horn of Africa has long been shaped by cycles of conflict and reconciliation, ambition and restraint, rhetoric and reality. In that environment, the true measure of leadership is not the sharpness of warnings delivered to rivals, but the ability to confront the deeper issues within one’s own political system. The proverb about the infected wound is therefore more than a metaphor directed outward. It is also a reminder that unresolved problems, wherever they originate, eventually demand attention.

In the end, the proverb about the infected wound carries a lesson that extends far beyond the political message it was meant to deliver. When Abiy used the phrase to signal frustration or warning toward Eritrea and its leadership, he was invoking a cultural expression that warns about the dangers of ignoring problems until they become impossible to manage. Yet the political realities surrounding Ethiopia suggest that the same warning applies just as strongly to the internal challenges facing his own government.

Over the past several years, Ethiopia has experienced a series of crises that began as manageable tensions but gradually evolved into major national conflicts from the devastating Tigray War to the ongoing instability in regions such as Amhara Region and Oromia Region. These conflicts, combined with economic strain and political fragmentation following the transition from the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front to the Prosperity Party, illustrate how unresolved tensions can accumulate over time. In this sense, the metaphor of the untreated wound becomes an uncomfortable reflection of Ethiopia’s own trajectory rather than simply a critique of external actors.

At the same time, Ethiopia remains one of the most significant states in Africa, hosting the headquarters of the African Union and maintaining enormous demographic, economic, and strategic potential. Its future influence will depend not only on its ability to assert itself in regional geopolitics such as debates over access to the Red Sea but also on its capacity to resolve the political and social fractures within its own borders.

Ultimately, the power of the proverb lies in its simplicity: wounds that are ignored do not heal on their own. They deepen. For Ethiopia and the broader Horn of Africa, the path toward lasting stability will require confronting those wounds directly through political compromise, institutional reform, and genuine national reconciliation before they become crises that no rhetoric or warning can contain.