Ethiopia’s Dangerous Designs

by Ibrahim A. Ibrahim:-

The Horn of Africa stands at a dangerous crossroads. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has openly pressed the claim that his country must acquire a Red Sea port, most provocatively, the Eritrean port of Assab, “by any means necessary.” Such rhetoric has alarmed neighbors and raised urgent questions about the future of regional stability.

With more than 120 million people, it is the world’s most populous landlocked state. Its dependence on Djibouti for over 95 percent of its imports and exports costs an estimated $1 billion annually. Addis Ababa frames its demand for a port as “economic necessity” and national survival. But necessity is no license for annexation. International law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), guarantees landlocked states transit rights to the sea, yet those rights stop at access, not territorial possession.

What Ethiopia presents as pragmatism is in fact perilous brinkmanship. Threats to use force in pursuit of a coastline are not only provocative but unlawful. Such posturing has been met with firm rejection by its neighbors, who rightly insist on the principle of territorial sovereignty. Ethiopia’s approach, if pursued, risks inflaming the very instability the Horn of Africa can least afford. A conflict sparked by expansionist ambition would devastate economies, deepen mistrust, and invite external meddling in one of the world’s most strategically vital corridors.

The truth is that none of Ethiopia’s neighbors has ever denied it access to ports. What they reject is arrogance cloaked as entitlement. If Ethiopia was willing to embrace genuine regional cooperation rather than hegemonic claims, and cease serving as a proxy for foreign powers, trust could grow, costs could fall, and prosperity could be shared.

The international community has a role to play here; encourage and strengthen mechanisms for cooperation, and withhold economic and technical assistance from Ethiopia which is working to destabilize Africa’s unity. Rewarding threats only fuels them.

Peace in the Horn will come not from Ethiopia’s sabre-rattling, but from restraint, respect, and cooperation. First and foremost, Ethiopia must abandon its expansionist designs. Only then can the region move toward a stable and prosperous future worthy of its peoples and its pivotal place in the world.