IT IS TOO LATE, THE HORSE HAS BOLTED

by David Yeh

This metaphor reflects the precarious state of Ethiopia’s ruling Potemkin Party, which grapples with severe and cascading crises. Although the chance for preventive action has slipped away, the party can still take measures to contain the fallout. Nonetheless, many observers are skeptical about the government’s political will to implement the necessary reforms.

To move forward, they must engage in transparent dialogue to address core issues. Rather than dismissing criticism, PP functionaries should take proactive steps to address the root causes of public frustration. Launching a legitimate national dialogue is crucial. The government has not made attempts at national dialogue; no efforts have been made to achieve tangible progress due to a lack of political engagement with and limited buy-in from key stakeholders. Re-engaging with diverse political elites and civil society groups could help address fundamental disagreements over power distribution and state structure.

It is imperative that human rights abuses be investigated. Federal and regional security forces have been accused of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, and mass displacement. Conducting and cooperating with independent investigations into these actions, particularly in the Amhara, Oromia, Afar, and Tigray regions, would help rebuild public trust.

Suppressing dissent must cease. The PP has been accused of silencing critical voices through the jailing of opponents, crushing independent media, and digital surveillance. Reversing these trends and allowing for greater freedom of expression would be a key step toward regaining legitimacy.

Fortifying judicial independence is a must. Although judicial reforms have been undertaken, political influence and corruption continue to erode the court system. Consistent respect for judicial decisions, especially those pertaining to political cases and due process, is indispensable.

Restoring economic credibility is essential. The PP’s economic credibility has been severely eroded due to high inflation, foreign currency shortages, and widespread corruption. Implementing genuine anti-corruption measures is critical. Although the PP has acknowledged corruption as an issue, past actions have often been falsely perceived as politically motivated. Rebuilding credibility requires transparent, independent investigations and prosecution of corrupt officials at all levels.

A stable economic strategy must be pursued. The PP’s initial ‘Homegrown Economic Reform’ was completely destroyed by conflict and macroeconomic instability. A new economic agenda that delivers stability, manages the debt crisis, and addresses inflation is necessary. Opening up the market transparently is crucial. No efforts have been made to open the economy, foreign investment is hindered by regulatory uncertainty and a system favoring state-owned enterprises and party affiliates. A genuinely open and transparent process would facilitate investment and restore confidence.

Prioritizing de-escalation and regional stability is crucial. The PP’s policies have heightened internal ethnic tensions and compromised relations with neighboring countries. Contested territories must be resolved. The unresolved status of Western Tigray and other disputed areas threatens to reignite conflict. The PP must honor the Pretoria Agreement’s terms and engage in genuine negotiations with regional stakeholders. A new transparent foreign policy plan is essential. The PP’s aggressive rhetoric and actions regarding Red Sea access and ownership have been inflammatory and destabilizing. A more transparent and diplomatic foreign policy approach is necessary to manage regional tensions.

Addressing humanitarian access is imperative. In conflict-affected regions, PP checkpoints have reportedly hindered humanitarian access, contributing to dire conditions. Ensuring unrestricted access for humanitarian aid is vital to addressing the massive displacement and food insecurity crises.

They inappropriately legitimize hardline factions. Internal party divisions and the influence of hardline factions have contributed to the crisis. They aspire to control military and militia forces. The government has struggled to control allied militias, like the Fano in Amhara, which has exacerbated conflict. Disarmament and integration processes must be pursued with discipline and accountability to stop human rights abuses. They attempt to counter online incitement. While blaming “enemies” for online destabilization, the PP can improve its own conduct by curbing the use of state-aligned media and social media proxies for inflammatory rhetoric.

Effectively managing expectations is a prudent strategy. Ultimately, acknowledging the severity of the situation and managing public expectations is a vital step for the PP. They must be astute enough to acknowledge past failures. The metaphor “closing the barn door after the horse has bolted” suggests that preventative measures are no longer viable and current efforts are belated.

Acknowledging the government’s failures to secure peace and economic stability could restore some credibility. Focusing on long-term recovery is the ultimate goal. Rather than showcasing “shining triumphs,” the PP must emphasize a realistic path to long-term recovery and acknowledge the immense challenges ahead. This involves prioritizing reconstruction, reconciliation, and addressing the deep-seated grievances that fueled the crises.

It is too late; “Ethiopia Seeks Sea Access Solely Through Peaceful Diplomacy”, reaffirms Ambassador Dina Mufti, who has been addressing “misguided narratives” and reiterating that Ethiopia seeks sea access “solely through peaceful means” and diplomatic cooperation, not through war or invasion.
We have noted that in several interviews and video clips with Ethiopian elites, military leaders, and spokespersons serving as part of the propaganda apparatuses, foreign relations, and peace affairs, a narrative has emerged with certainty suggesting that Ethiopia plans to acquire sea access and ownership through invasion, war, and conflict. It is crucial to dismantle this false narrative and communicate the truth to the global community. He himself has clearly affirmed that Ethiopia pursues sea access, including through military means.

Dina bluffed out that Ethiopia aims to achieve its sea access objective based on the principles of reciprocity, diplomacy, and cooperation; however, he and his prime minister are not upholding these principles. He underscored that as a rapidly developing nation with a substantial growth in import and export trade, securing reliable sea access is an imperative that cannot be ignored. This issue has not arisen for over three decades; it cannot become an issue in the future. He stated, “Ethiopian diplomacy remains centered on national interest.” Did he also take into account the national interests of other countries in his context? He is perpetuating misguided narratives among the current generation, promoting a hazardous ideology of securing sea access, ownership, and instigating lasting conflicts with neighboring countries.

David Yeh