Red Sea Tensions and Bab el-Mandeb: Eritrea at the Hinge of a Global Chokepoint

By Alula Frezghi

Every era has its strategic hinge. During the Cold War, strategists focused on the Fulda Gap as the fault line where East and West might collide. During the energy crises of the 1970s, global attention shifted to the Strait of Hormuz. Today, the Bab el-Mandeb has emerged as one of the world’s most consequential maritime chokepoints. A significant share of the maritime trade linking Europe, Asia, and the Middle East transits this narrow corridor. When instability reaches its waters, the effects ripple far beyond the Red Sea, disrupting global commerce, energy markets, maritime insurance, supply chains, and the strategic calculations of major powers.

Reports that Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi movement to prepare for a possible shutdown of Bab el-Mandeb are not routine noise in an already volatile conflict zone. They signal a willingness to weaponize geography itself. Missiles, drones, and military advisers positioned around a critical maritime chokepoint are more than tactical assets; they are instruments of strategic coercion capable of imposing costs on the international system far beyond the immediate theater of conflict. Increasingly, modern conflict is defined not only by the contest for territory but also by the ability to manipulate strategic geography. Maritime chokepoints, ports, undersea infrastructure, and vital shipping corridors have become instruments through which states and non-state actors seek political leverage, economic disruption, and diplomatic concessions without necessarily engaging in conventional interstate war.

A simultaneous disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would amount to an unprecedented test of the resilience of the global economy. Such a scenario would extend well beyond energy markets. Shipping costs would surge, supply chains would lengthen, insurance premiums would escalate, and food and manufactured goods would become more expensive across multiple continents. The consequences would be measured not only in barrels of oil or freight rates, but also in inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty, and heightened geopolitical instability.

Eritrea’s Stake: More Than Proximity

Eritrea is not a passive bystander that happens to sit on the Red Sea. It is a sovereign littoral state whose geography places it at the center of one of the world’s most strategically significant maritime corridors. With more than 1,200 kilometers of coastline, the ports of Massawa and Assab, and the Dahlak Archipelago overlooking the western approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb, Eritrea occupies a position that has attracted the attention of regional and global powers for centuries. Geography alone ensures that any durable Red Sea security architecture will remain incomplete without Eritrean participation.

Any attempt to treat the Red Sea as a militarized chessboard inevitably affects Eritrea’s security, economy, and diplomatic posture.

1. Maritime Security and Sovereignty

Any escalation near the Bab el-Mandeb increases the risk of:

* Drone and missile spillover into adjacent airspace and maritime zones.
* Naval confrontations that could unintentionally expand into Eritrean waters.
* Intelligence, electronic surveillance, and military reconnaissance by external powers throughout the Red Sea corridor.
* Hybrid threats, including cyber operations against maritime infrastructure and interference with commercial navigation.

For Eritrea, maritime security is not an abstract concept. It is the continuous responsibility of protecting an extensive coastline situated along one of the world’s busiest shipping routes. Sovereignty here extends beyond territorial waters. It includes preserving strategic autonomy, safeguarding national maritime interests, and resisting efforts by competing powers to transform Eritrean territory or waters into platforms for proxy competition or military confrontation.