A Decade of Hope Undermined: The Collapse of Ethiopia–Eritrea Peace Since 2018

by Daniel Ghebre-medhin

A Decade of Hope Undermined: The Collapse of Ethiopia–Eritrea Peace Since 2018

There is a well-known proverb in our country: “ኣብ ጥቃ ዓጋም ዝበቖለ ቆልቋል ክነብዕ ክጉዳእ እነብር”, which roughly translates to: “A large African milk tree (cathedral cactus) growing next to a thorn tree will always end up being wounded.” Its meaning is simple: the thorn will continually prick the milk tree.

Unfortunately, this reflects the reality Eritrea has faced for generations, a nation that happens to share its southern border with Ethiopia. The Eritrean people have suffered endlessly from problems that largely originated from political instability and aggression from that direction.

To be clear, it is wrong to generalize or blame the people of Ethiopia. Ordinary citizens are not the problem. The issue lies with the succession of regimes that have repeatedly served foreign interests, oppressed their own population, and pursued expansionist ambitions toward Eritrean territory.

In this context, the recent political duplicity of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has become evident. His rhetoric, especially his 2023 parliamentary speech, marked a clear and troubling shift. Since then, the Prosperity Party (PP) regime has intensified its efforts to undermine the territorial rights of neighboring countries in the Horn of Africa. First it was Somalia, where he tried to buy the sea with an illegal MOU in exchange for recognition for Somaliland; now he has turned to provoking Eritrea with imaginary history and manufactured claims of “ancient coastal rights,” conveniently forgetting everything Eritrea sacrificed to keep him and his country from collapsing.

Over the past two years, the PP regime has expanded its propaganda machinery through military leaders, political figures, cadres, and various media outlets. Their false narratives have fueled hostility among different ethnic groups, particularly directing antagonism toward the Eritrean people and other neighboring nations.

Instead of confronting their own governance failures and economic decline, they look outward for scapegoats. Rather than building a system that serves their citizens and promotes internal harmony, they divert domestic frustration toward external issues manufacturing narratives that blame others for problems caused by their own mismanagement.

Their latest fantasy-based claim suggests that Ethiopia’s economic problems stem from its rapidly growing population now about 130 million and its supposed lack of access to the sea. They deliberately promote this narrative to shape public opinion. Their expansionist ambition is completely unrealistic, and the stories they construct to justify it are not only misleading but, at times, childish.

Their messaging is contradictory: one message for domestic consumption, another for the international community. They cannot distinguish between commercial access to the sea and owning the sea as part of an expansionist project. Meanwhile, officials at different levels release speeches that contradict each other, exposing the deep confusion within the regime.

One of their most dangerous delusions is the belief that a large population can be easily transformed into a massive army capable of controlling the Horn of Africa in a short time. They openly promote this idea to impress their own people. According to their distorted interpretation of international law, they believe they have the authority to reshape borders however they wish. Their recklessness appears limitless.

In his recent parliamentary speech, the inexperienced Prime Minister even boasted that Ethiopia can add a population equal to that of Eritrea every year. The message is clear and alarming: he is implying that Ethiopia could overwhelm or even eliminate the entire Eritrean population by sacrificing an equivalent number of Ethiopians in order to seize Eritrean territory and gain unrestricted access to the sea. This rhetoric amounts to an open call for genocide against the Eritrean people an attempt to prepare and mobilize a vast military population to overpower Eritrea.

After all these continuous, provocative, and poisonous statements from multiple officials, they are now suddenly claiming to be ready for dialogue through their embassies and consulates around the world. Despite their frustration with the consequences of their own reckless actions, they continue their deliberate campaign to confuse or convince others, believing this tactic will still succeed.

As the world becomes increasingly preoccupied with its own crises, there is a real risk that the international community may accept or misunderstand the situation in the Horn of Africa through the false narratives manufactured by the PP regime. Therefore, it is essential to remind the world of the developments in the Horn in general and the evolution of Eritrea–Ethiopia relations since 2018 in particular.

After the end of the TPLF era, the new Prime Minister of Ethiopia expressed interest in establishing peace in the region, especially in resolving the long-standing border issue with Eritrea. He publicly accepted the Final and Binding Algiers Agreement and signaled readiness to implement it without conditions, implementation previously blocked by the TPLF with the support of certain Western governments.

The Eritrean people and government welcomed this development. After decades of waiting for genuine peace, Eritrea responded positively, opened its doors, and embraced the chance for lasting stability. The Prime Minister’s visit to Asmara was historic, culminating in the signing of the Five-Point Peace Agreement – Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia.pdf

Eritrea remained consistent in its principles of peace and development. It honored the agreement fully and demonstrated strong commitment to implementation. Eritrea showed, once again, its dedication to long-term peace and regional stability. It even paid a heavy sacrifice to help prevent Ethiopia from disintegrating during the internal turmoil and civil war of 2020–2022. This contribution, both in will and sacrifice, was openly acknowledged at the time by the Prime Minister, his commanders, numerous officials, and the Ethiopian media.

Eritrea demonstrated unwavering commitment to safeguarding peace, security, and stability for Ethiopia and the region. But beginning in 2023, Ethiopia dramatically shifted its stance and began pursuing expansionist ambitions openly in parliament. This abrupt and irresponsible change raises essential questions:

What kind of dialogue is the PP regime seeking with Eritrea now?
After abandoning a historic reconciliation, turning hostile, and fabricating accusations, why this sudden interest in “dialogue”? Why falsely accuse Eritrea of destabilizing Ethiopia when the same officials once acknowledged Eritrea’s decisive role in preventing Ethiopia’s collapse during the civil war?

The details are many, but at the very least, the international community must ask logical questions that prevent reckless leaders from believing they can escape accountability for their fantasies and provocations.

The bottom line is clear:
The Eritrean people and government have shown an unshakable commitment to peace, regional security, and cooperation based on mutual respect and shared interests. Eritrea will continue to uphold its principled stance, despite baseless provocations, and will abide by international law and sovereign rights.

Eritrea’s sovereignty is non-negotiable. Eritrea will never surrender what is hers, nor claim what does not belong to her.

Awet n’Hafash.
Zelalemawi zikri n’Suwuatna.

Daniel Ghebre-medhin, New York