Complicity and Duplicity of External Entities Will Only Deepen the Crisis in Ethiopia and Across the Horn of Africa

By Ahferom Thomas

The announcement of the formation of the Coalition of Ethiopian Popular Forces for Survival, on September 20, 2026 by groups fighting against the Prosperity Party (PP)-led regime, and the expansion of armed conflict in many parts of the country, were met with press statements – with largely similar messages – from some countries and organizations.

The timing and content of these statements are telling. Undoubtedly, the entities that issued them knew that the war did not start just then. The conflict in Oromia was raging even during the days of euphoria following the 2018 regime change. The Prosperity Party (PP)-led regime has been at war in the Amhara region since March 2023. The tension between the Federal Government and the Tigray region, which had improved following the Pretoria Agreement, descended into open military conflict several months ago.

These developments did not happen in a vacuum. The PP-led regime had clearly outlined its intention to finish off the armed opposition groups one by one. The mobilization of hundreds of thousands of soldiers and large numbers of artillery batteries to areas controlled by opposition forces was carried out in broad daylight. The regime continues its waves of ground attacks, showering these areas with bombs from drones and heavy weaponry.

In this context, many in Ethiopia are raising a legitimate question as to what motivated these countries and organizations to issue statements largely aligned with the regime’s talking points. What explains the total silence of these entities when the PP-led regime declared total war and deployed its ground and air capabilities in Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, and other parts of the country over the past few years?

The part of the statements advocating for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Ethiopia is met with bewilderment by the peoples of neighboring countries, who wonder why these countries and organizations chose to keep silent – and continued to funnel substantive financial support to it through bilateral/multilateral “budgetary” packages and IMF instruments in the face of the PP-led regime’s continued belligerence towards Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan.

Since 2023, the Abiy Ahmed regime has continued to be a major actor in the war in Sudan, playing the role assigned to it by the UAE leadership to train, arm, provide medical care and diplomatic support, and so forth, to the RSF. The Government of Sudan has accused the PP regime – supported by evidence – of launching drone attacks on Khartoum Airport and other areas of Sudan from Ethiopia.

The regime’s role in exacerbating the war in Sudan is well documented through in-depth reports, including one by Yale University, as well as a vast cache of photographs, videos, and satellite imagery. Most importantly, the regime itself does not deny these allegations. Yet the countries and organizations that are now championing sovereignty and territorial integrity have so far chosen to see no evil, hear no evil, and speak no evil.

It is recent history that the PP-led regime declared a national celebration on 1 January 2024 following the signing of an MoU with Somaliland, a regional entity of Somalia, to gain sovereign access to the sea in exchange for recognizing the latter. Even though it was eventually forced to abandon the assignment given to it by the UAE and Israel in the face of overwhelming opposition from countries and organizations, it took the President of Türkiye locking the negotiators in a room for seven hours for the Prime Minister of the PP regime to agree to include in the agreement a phrase on “respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of Somalia” – a non-controversial UN Charter principle formally agreed upon in 1945 and signed by Ethiopia the same year. However, the organizations and countries that condemned Israel’s decision to recognize the Somaliland region of Somalia late last year turned a blind eye to Ethiopia’s declared commitment to do the same.

In October 2023, the PP-led regime publicly declared its plan to secure “sovereign access to the sea by any means necessary, including force.” The propaganda avalanche over the following three years demonstrated that Eritrea is the target of aggression. The regime continues, unashamedly, to try to undermine the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence of Eritrea by manufacturing narratives aimed at rewriting the history, identity, and development trajectory of the country. These actions amount to a declaration of war on Eritrea.

Coupled with this, in a bid to effect regime change in Eritrea, the PP-led regime organized, trained, financed, and armed defunct anti-Eritrea groups. These countries and organizations that have now declared themselves defenders of sovereignty and territorial integrity have, to this date, made no public statements opposing the PP’s blatant threats that violate the AU Constitutive Act, the UN Charter, and international law.

Admittedly, it is difficult to know the motivation behind each statement. However, there is incontrovertible evidence that some of the countries and organizations that have issued these statements are complicit in the PP’s local and regional acts of destabilization. Hence, it is no surprise that these entities would consider any action that checks the excesses of the regime a threat.

On the other hand, entities with no direct role in the regime’s crimes, but which have resorted to duplicity by choosing to remain silent while the people of Ethiopia and the region suffer and making noise only when there is resistance to the regime’s actions, are knowingly or unknowingly abetting the regime’s acts of destabilization and aggression.

These countries and organizations might argue that they issued statements for the sake of peace and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. This argument can only be taken seriously if they can convincingly explain their continued silence in the face of the PP regime’s acts of destabilization in Ethiopia and across the region and commit to making up for their dereliction of duty through public statements.

Duplicity will only embolden the regime to continue its destructive course.