Manufacturing Illusions: Ethiopia’s Propaganda, Expansionism, and the Death of Trust

By B. Tekle

The fragile peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, painstakingly brokered and tentatively maintained, is being systematically dismantled by a relentless and irresponsible propaganda campaign emanating from Addis Ababa. This campaign, primarily disseminated through Amharic-language state and government-affiliated media, is not merely a political critique; it is a full-scale psychological operation designed to delegitimize the Eritrean state, justify expansionist ambitions, and, in the process, create a deep and potentially irreversible erosion of trust that makes any credible pathway to stable, neighborly coexistence virtually impossible.

The current Ethiopian government, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has framed its quest for access to the Red Sea as an “existential question” for the landlocked nation. While the diplomatic language used for international consumption often speaks of “peaceful access” and “dialogue,” the message broadcast to the domestic audience and the wider Horn of Africa is far more aggressive, rooted in historical revisionism and a dangerous denial of Eritrean sovereignty. This dual-track communication strategy exposes a profound hypocrisy and a clear intent to prepare the Ethiopian populace for a confrontation based on manufactured grievances.

The Weaponization of Media and History

The most insidious element of this campaign is the systematic use of state-controlled and government-affiliated media to relentlessly disrespect and demonize Eritrea. These programs, widely available on platforms like YouTube, serve as a primary vector for spreading systematic disinformation. They portray Eritrea not as a sovereign nation, but as an illegitimate, failed, or even “bogus” state whose very existence is a historical anomaly that must be corrected.

A prime example of this demonization is the program titled “ኤርትራ ለምን ፈረሰች?” (Why did Eritrea collapse?), broadcast by a government-affiliated channel. The narrative presented in this program is a microcosm of the broader propaganda effort. It argues that Eritrea’s independence was not a legitimate act of self-determination but a “project” engineered by colonial powers and external forces solely to weaken Ethiopia by denying it sea access. The program dismisses the 1993 referendum and the subsequent international recognition of Eritrea as a “historical blunder” committed by the previous Ethiopian regime.

The core message is unmistakable: Eritrea is a nation whose foundation is flawed, whose leadership is repressive, and whose future is one of inevitable failure or, implicitly, reintegration into Ethiopia. This narrative willfully ignores that Eritrea’s foundation is rooted in a decades-long, internationally recognized struggle for self-determination, and that any current economic or political difficulties are inextricably linked to the very Ethiopian aggression and policy of containment that this propaganda now seeks to justify. By portraying Eritrea as a “museum” of stagnation and a country whose national project was never about its own prosperity but about undermining Ethiopia, the propaganda seeks to strip Eritrea of its moral and political legitimacy in the eyes of the Ethiopian public and the global diaspora. This is a classic bullying tactic—to deny the victim’s right to exist as an independent entity, thereby justifying any future aggression against it.

This media offensive is not a spontaneous phenomenon but a coordinated effort. Reports have confirmed the existence of a “Media Army” organized by the ruling Prosperity Party, tasked with disseminating false information and state narratives across social media and traditional outlets. This organized disinformation campaign is designed to manufacture the illusion of internal Eritrean dissent and to sow discord between the two peoples, all while amplifying the expansionist rhetoric.

The Expansionist Agenda: From “Access” to “Dismantling”

The shift in rhetoric from a quest for “peaceful access” to an aggressive demand for sovereignty over Eritrean territory is a clear indicator of an expansionist agenda. While Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has, at times, attempted to soften his stance for international audiences, the domestic messaging remains bellicose. The constant questioning of Eritrea’s legitimacy is a psychological preparation for a military or political move to dismantle the country.

The argument that Ethiopia’s landlocked status is an “existential threat” is a rhetorical device used to justify the violation of international law and the sovereignty of a neighboring state. It conveniently ignores the fact that Ethiopia has enjoyed access to ports in Djibouti and Sudan, and until recently, Eritrea, through commercial agreements. The current government’s insistence on a sovereign port, or a “natural right” to the sea, is a dangerous revival of imperial-era claims that have historically destabilized the region.

This aggressive rhetoric has recently been formalized into a “national doctrine.” Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Gedion Timothewos, has declared that securing access to the sea is now a strategic priority that “transcends politics and generations,” effectively framing it as a non-negotiable right for national survival. This move is a significant escalation, transforming mere bellicose rhetoric into a state-mandated territorial claim. Furthermore, Ethiopia has made it clear that its focus is specifically on the Eritrean port of Assab, an ambition visually reinforced by high-ranking Ethiopian military officials who were seen displaying a mutilated map of Eritrea, showing the entire southern Red Sea region absorbed into Ethiopia. Although the image was later removed from official channels, its circulation by Prosperity Party propagandists is not an isolated incident but a deliberate, high-level provocation aimed at testing boundaries and normalizing the idea of annexation.

The propaganda campaign systematically conflates the legitimate needs of a landlocked country with an illegitimate claim on the territory of a sovereign neighbor. This is achieved through:

By constantly repeating the narrative that Eritrea is an illegitimate project, the Ethiopian government is attempting to normalize the idea of its dissolution. This is not diplomacy; it is a declaration of intent to violate the fundamental principles of the African Union and the United Nations Charter, which uphold the inviolability of colonial-era borders.

The Irreversible Erosion of Trust

The most tragic consequence of this systematic campaign is the profound and potentially irreversible damage it is inflicting on the relationship between the Ethiopian and Eritrean peoples. The 2018 peace agreement, which earned Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a Nobel Peace Prize, was built on the fragile foundation of mutual respect and the promise of a new era of cooperation. The current propaganda has shattered that foundation.

Trust is the currency of peace. When a government uses its entire media apparatus to portray its neighbor as an enemy that must be dismantled, it poisons the well of public opinion. For Eritreans, both inside the country and in the diaspora, this rhetoric is not abstract; it is a direct threat to their national identity, their hard-won sovereignty, and their security. It confirms the deepest fears that the Ethiopian government has not abandoned its historical hegemonic ambitions.

This erosion of trust has significant regional implications. The Ethiopian government’s propaganda machine has sought to weaponize Eritrea’s sovereign diplomatic relationship with Egypt—a country Ethiopia often portrays as a “historical enemy”—as a convenient tool for demonization. By associating Eritrea with a perceived rival, Addis Ababa attempts to justify its aggressive posturing. This bullying tactic, however, has the predictable outcome of pushing its neighbors to seek security alliances against a perceived common threat. Instead of fostering a regional economic bloc based on shared prosperity, Addis Ababa is creating a volatile geopolitical environment where the risk of a wider conflict is escalating daily.

Ethiopians and Eritreans in the diaspora and at home—must recognize the danger of this state-sponsored hate speech. The systematic disinformation is designed to manipulate public sentiment, making it easier for the government to mobilize support for aggressive action. It is a cynical tactic that sacrifices the long-term stability of the region for short-term political gain and the fulfillment of a dangerous, anachronistic imperial fantasy.

Conclusion

Eritrea’s sovereignty is non-negotiable. It was established through a legitimate referendum and recognized by the international community. The Ethiopian government’s irresponsible propaganda campaign, characterized by the demonization of Eritrea and the spread of systematic disinformation, is a clear act of aggression that fundamentally undermines any prospect of stable, neighborly coexistence.

The international community must unequivocally condemn this rhetoric. Allowing a major regional power to openly question the legitimacy of a sovereign neighbor and hint at territorial acquisition sets a dangerous precedent. Peace in the Horn of Africa cannot be built on a foundation of lies, historical revisionism, and expansionist threats. Until the Ethiopian government ceases its bullying tactics, dismantles its media army, and commits to respecting Eritrea’s sovereignty in both word and deed, the path to peace will remain blocked by a wall of mistrust and the looming shadow of renewed conflict.