by Yemane Abselom
Ethiopia’s population has always been far larger than Eritrea’s. Yet, successive Ethiopian rulers have fallen for the fallacy that population alone confers power. This belief has repeatedly dragged Ethiopia into wars it could neither win nor justify. Numbers do not win wars; justice, purpose, and unity do.
Historical Miscalculations
When Emperor Haile Selassie illegally annexed Eritrea, he believed that Ethiopia’s size and strength would easily suppress the Eritrean demand for independence. He imprisoned, exiled, or executed anyone who peacefully advocated for Eritrean freedom and tried to buy off others with money and positions. Instead of quelling dissent, his repression ignited a national awakening—drawing thousands more Eritreans into the struggle for independence.
Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam made the same mistake. Convinced that Ethiopia’s vast population could crush the Eritrean dream, he launched several massive military campaigns. The sixth offensive was his largest and most ambitious—drafting over a million young men, acquiring advanced Soviet weaponry, and employing Russian and Eastern Bloc military advisors. The campaign spared no expense in money or manpower.
By contrast, the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) relied solely on its people and meager resources, purchasing weapons on the black market. Against all odds, Eritrea survived the sixth offensive and ultimately defeated the Derg regime in 1991—a testament that conviction and organization can triumph over numbers and machinery.
Post-Independence Aggression
After Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia under the TPLF-led government (Woyane) again resorted to force. When Ethiopian troops killed an Eritrean patrol near Badme, Eritrea called for peaceful resolution, but its appeals were ignored. The Woyane regime, backed by Western powers, believed Ethiopia’s population and foreign support could secure an easy victory and install a puppet government in Asmara.
Eritrea, which had rejected foreign aid and NGOs in favor of self-reliance, became a target of sanctions that crippled let alone weapons, even basic imports—water purification equipment, farming tools, and electricity parts. Despite such pressure, Eritrea not only survived but prevailed, forcing Ethiopia to accept a final and binding international ruling in The Hague that confirmed Eritrea’s sovereignty.
The Present Reality
Today, sanctions have been lifted, and Eritrea—an independent, internationally recognized nation—can freely acquire the best defensive systems. It has intimate knowledge of Ethiopia’s capabilities. Reports suggest Eritrea is well-armed with modern technology capable of striking deep into Ethiopian territory. Likewise, Ethiopia has the means to retaliate. What will drive the next war isn’t the size of the army but the size and type of weapons. Any future war would no longer be a battle between soldiers but a catastrophic exchange of destruction—a tragedy neither nation could afford.
The Misguided Obsession with the Sea
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent rhetoric about Ethiopia’s “right” to a port repeats the same delusional logic of his predecessors—that population size or geography justifies aggression. He portrays access to the sea as a matter of national survival, diverting public attention from Ethiopia’s economic crisis, internal conflicts, and his government’s inability to govern a vast and divided country.
In reality, Ethiopia already has access to the sea through peaceful, cooperative arrangements. Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Kenya all stand ready to provide port access on fair and competitive terms. The region offers open doors, not closed borders. War is unnecessary. Access exists—what’s missing is wisdom.
As one critic bluntly put it in Amharic:
“ዶ/ር ዐቢ ምሁር አይደለም፣ ከታሪክ የማይማር ደደብ ነው።”
“Dr. Abiy is not a scholar; he is a fool who refuses to learn from history.”
Harsh words, perhaps—but painfully accurate.
Conclusion
Ethiopia’s problem has never been the absence of a coastline, but the presence of leaders who mistake population for power and aggression for progress. The future of the Horn of Africa lies not in conquest but in cooperation. The ports of the Red Sea are open to friendship, not force. No Ethiopian should be misled by the false promise of war when peaceful access is already within reach.
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