Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia: A Nation on the Brink

By Wedi Jelhanti

The Horn of Africa has long been one of the world’s most complex regions. History, ethnic divisions, and external interests have kept it volatile. Yet amid this turbulence, Eritrea has distinguished itself as a nation that projects stability and discipline, while Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party grapples with mounting chaos.

Since gaining independence in 1993, Eritrea’s story has been one of sovereignty and caution. The country has maintained firm control over its destiny, resisting external interference and carefully managing relations with foreign powers through a policy of self‑reliance.

As one observer noted, “Eritrea has been deliberate in ensuring that external assistance aligns with its national priorities, a position that has ensured it retains greater control over its development agenda rather than react to shifting donor priorities.”

The Eritrean government has consistently emphasized responsibility in regional affairs building alliances when necessary, but always on its own terms. Such a principled approach, rather than short‑term tactical maneuvering, has enabled Eritrea to remain resilient even as its neighbors falter.

Ethiopia, by contrast, has pursued a policy rooted in short‑term tactical diplomacy, seeking temporary advantages through borrowed soft power. This approach has ultimately led the country into a zero‑sum foreign policy game. Domestically, Ethiopia is mired in relentless ethnic conflicts an outcome not born of chance, but of incompetent leadership entrenched in an ethnicity‑based doctrine disguised as federalism. Rather than fostering unity, this framework has driven the nation into endless strife that threatens to dismantle its cohesion.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front continues to distrust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration, while Fano militias in the Amhara region wage war against the central government. Peace remains elusive in Oromia and Somali regions as well. Dialogue and reconciliation are absent from the Prosperity Party’s political vocabulary; instead, the ruling party has chosen the path of perpetual civil war.

As Human Rights Watch observed, “Ethiopian security forces and armed groups have committed serious abuses against civilians in multiple regions, including Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and elsewhere, with little accountability.” This has produced a devastating human crisis, including widespread displacement and sexual violence against women and children.

The relentless civil conflict under Abiy’s administration has gravely damaged Ethiopia’s reputation and jeopardized the future of its young generation. The working class has been forced out of business, farmers are unable to cultivate their fields, and schools in the Amhara and Oromia regions have ceased teaching. Families, fearing for their children’s safety, are unwilling to send them to school particularly due to the government’s forced military recruitment, which has disrupted both education and regular market activities.

Travel from Addis Ababa to other parts of the country no longer carries the security it once did, and kidnappings of both local and foreign travelers have become an almost daily reality. Ethiopia has endured political and wartime challenges before, but the widespread killing of innocent citizens, burning of peasants’ homes and farms, destruction of livestock, and abductions of civilians and foreigners are unprecedented in the country’s history occurring only during Abiy’s era.

Equally troubling is Abiy’s reckless ambition to claim sea access for a naval base from neighboring countries. This pursuit has destabilized the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor, raising serious concerns about Ethiopia’s diplomatic relations not only with its immediate neighbors but also with the broader international community. Addis Ababa has been openly condemned for violating the principles of the United Nations and African Union, which emphasize respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Yet Abiy’s administration continues to cling to its unrealistic narrative of acquiring coastal territory an approach described as “all bark, no diplomacy.” Unsurprisingly, no neighboring country has shown interest in joining Arat Kilo’s zero-sum political formula.

This situation signals that Ethiopia is no longer guided by leadership rooted in its own political traditions. Instead, the ruling power at Arat Kilo appears to be following external agendas, leaving the country trapped in endless conflicts that undermine its people. Ethiopia’s once-strong leadership culture in the Horn of Africa has eroded.

Unless the current government corrects its destructive and war-torn governance, the nation risks eventual disintegration. Therefore, Abiy’s administration must urgently craft policies that safeguard the country. If it fails to do so, it would be better for the government to resign voluntarily or face justice for the crimes committed under its rule.